Comments on Wednesday 4-27-05

Hi Students, and Guest's...

I have just a few comments about trading on the 10:30 bar...I let that bar close off, then I look to see if it's a reverse or a continuation. This is also the time when we would look for the 30-Minute Breakout. Pretty hard to catch a long candle because of the previous 4 candles and as I mentioned in the room a 4 or 5 candle will more than likely turn red and even retrace the long candle. After a retrace I look for a pullback to see if I can enter with a confluence. At 11 o'clock we were watching a tight W pattern form, and if you took the trade at the #3 point or used a point or point and 1/4 above and let the market come to you, would have been a safe trade; also the Gap Strategy would also let you take that trade. I did not see the opportunity to trail that trade...so taking 1-1/4 point for a target to exit and looking for a fish hook, or red candles to stay in the game as long as possible.

Next opportunity was that -- I wanna be a Contrarian in the afternoon...and you see a triple top during the time when the ES likes to move toward the low of the day, it had potential, and you would try to plan in anticipation to get short. Second candle below the MA looked good but would have ended up stopping you out.

Next anticipation to be a seller was at the 3:00 reverse, it turned out to be tough also...we had a blip, but the next candle when you would look to pull the trigger turned white, if you took the trade it worked, but would have been frustrating sitting on that trade for 15-minutes.

I don't recommend trading in the last hour...3:30 is my cut off, with few exceptions. Overall was a tough bullish bias kinda Wednesday and at no time did we ever have a confluence. Note -- when we have the TICK at or above 1000 you will probably see the market turn, so be cautious taking a trade unless you have a good eye on resistance or red candles on the D or N. The TRIN really should be in your favor or at least moving in your direction.

Check out the chart: http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April27-05WedBull.gif

Any thoughts?

Marsh

Quote for the day...

Patience and perseverance have a magical effect before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish.

-- John Quincy Adams