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Newbies, don't make this way too difficult...we don't really care about what is going on in the world. The price action after the first hour will set the stage. Keep this simple, go with the flow, trade with the trend, look for the Magic Numbers.

True, sometimes the market will move too far too fast too soon, and you may not be able to catch the train; but this is where you have to really focus, and when in doubt stay out.

When doing your homework, you are going to be checking for reports that are posted on Econoday, or whatever briefing service you may be using, and check out the night-session for support and resistance points before the open...the main thing is to be patient, and use discipline when you see an obvious set-up.

Anticipate the 30-Minute Breakout...use the tools and methods to keep you safe, and never risk more than 2 points...if you see that you would have to risk more than two points, stay on the sidelines. Remember we don't really want to risk anything...so if it does not go your way in 5-minutes look for a profitable exit or breakeven, or a smaller loss.

We have 15 price patterns to draw from...find a strategy to fit your personality; learn all of it's idiosyncrasies, and those subtle little nuance's that are big clues...90% of time you will need mom to make a safe trade.

Prosper,

-Marsh

Thought for the day...

You must take responsibility for everything in your life. Make yourself go beyond where you think you can go...there is no compromise in the rules, we must not give in to our weaknesses. It's knowledge from past experience, that gives you confidence to make the right decisions.

A question from April 15th, 2005

Question:

Hi Marsh ...I did this Friday and wonder what you thought about it. When I looked at the W forming I thought it would not work because we were mega bearish but coming of a triple bottom and broke above ma, small risk, I thought well it just might b-o, but if not I would take a small profit, which I did. Then I saw the M working off DT and got in when it broke below MA, and mega bearish I did not wait for W to b-o, or the M, I entered early but with what I felt a very small risk but alot of rewards. Any thoughts ?

Check out the chart at http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April15-05Friday.png

Answer:

That was my way of thinking...it was just too bearish. I thought it might be the place when on a Friday it likes to make a run for it...my plan was to take it second time through and had my finger on the trigger and the candle turned red...the M went with the trend and I was done for the day so I did not take it. I think it would have been a piece of cake though.

-Marsh

Some Observations from Thursday April 14th

Hi Students and Guest's...

Very interesting day, and also very profitable...these were the opportunities we looked at in the open Hotcomm room today; patience really paid off again like yesterday. I really expected a retracement today; but you just have to go with the flow. We started downhill in a Descending Channel...and the market was pretty bearish with the Magic Numbers close at hand.

1. At 9:50 we noted a TT...set-up for the 10 o'clock reverse, and early 30-minute BO.

2. 10:25 -- 10:30 Reverse...very nice set-up and we noted the long shadow; a big clue. If you took this PT...my advise was the candle above the blip or second candle above the MA...both would have worked.

3. Descending Channel -- We had the DT at the top of the descending channel...this is a set-up to trade with the trend in a descending channel. Also had the 30-Minute Breakout (breakdown for Elliott) second time through. Very close to 12 o'clock so I thought it best to wait and see if it was going to Hop or Flop. It did try to Hop, but in the last 12 months or so...it would stall and most of the time moved lower. When we got the 2 nd candle below the MA and risking less than 2 points looked very promising...Exit at support or use a tight 1 point stop.

4. Next we had the breakout (breakdown for Elliott), and set-up with the trend during that 1 o'clock move we talk about everyday -- it was at major support at 1170.00. I was asked how to take that trade and we decided we would take it the 2 nd. time through or use the 1 point below support and let the market come to you. Both worked. Nice trade Rynn!

5. I was through for the day...but if you want to be a Contrarian the DB looked very enticing at 1:35.

Any thoughts or questions about today -- if not I will see you in the open Hotcomm room tomorrow morning for about an hour or so. Friday has a bullish bias...and I will still be looking for that retracement.

Check out the chart at http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April14-05Thur.png

Marsh

Loosen up Pilgrim...

Tomorrow is the most important thing in life...Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something form yesterday.

John Wayne (1907 -- 1979) Actor

Some observations on April 12th, 2005

Hi Students, and Guest's...

Some observations while in the open Hotcomm, and Paltalk room this afternoon.

I told everyone I did not think the report of the FOMC would cause very much volatility... WRONG! I'm not sure it was the minutes or not...the fact remains you don't want to be in a trade at or near a report of any kind. Wait for the bar to close.

Don't yell at me about the old saying --"Don't be long at 2 o'clock -- but maybe at 2:05."

Two problems while trading at or near the low of the day...it was at support, and trading at the low of day is very high risk...best to let it break the support, and use one of the 3 techniques to take the trade.

When you want to take that high risk trade you better have a confluence. Both MACD's were uphill. I was asked where I thought the market might go...my answer was I did not know, but take a look at the 15-Minute MACD for direction.

The breakout of the trading range was caused by the report or some news...but with the direction from the MACD's and having the second candle above the MA with the risk being back down below the MA...looked like an opportunity to me...and you had mom, and the possibility of a trailing stop, and protecting your entry. Caution as you approach the 3 o'clock reverse.

How about the 30-Minute Breakout at the high of the day...same problem as trading at the low; risky and would have been resistance for the breakout of the trading range...once again if you weren't in the Breakout trade and wanted to take the 30-Minute Breakout of the high, just use the same technique, as at the low of the day.

For PowerTraders -- the Open Gap Strategy trade had mom...or very close to it, it would have worked. 10 o'clock reverse...and you can see why I let that 10 o'clock bar close off, did not reverse but was a continuation of the open trend.

After the first hour there was the 30-Minute Breakout (Breakdown for Elliott) with the second candle below the line and a good opportunity...A lot of mom to push it down...the doldrums was just that the doldrums...and on a Tuesday we get that sideways channel we so often see.

Newbie's...new students, tell me about trading in the Red Zone?????

Tell me about trading in the Red Zone? And the TICK, and the TRIN, and how about those Magic Numbers when your anticipating a trade????

This one will just gnaw at you...because you would have had a breakout line on top and below that narrow channel...looking for that breakout, and taking the trade with the second candle above the MA, and you're going to say I coulda, woulda, shoulda.

Check out the chart at http://www.simple-as-123.net/charts/April12-05TuesFOMC.png

Don't let it frustrate you...it's a good lesson.

Marsh

While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior.

- Henry C. Link