W Formation

Hi Rynn...

I thought about you when I saw that W formation forming. I asked myself would he or wouldn't he take this trade.

I would not have taken it first time through because we did not have stoch's in the right position...and number 2, we had 2 red candles in a row...it just felt like it was not going to make it. If you did take the risk and you could withstand the emotions, it never pulled back below the #4 point, and it would have paid off. I can't stay in a trade that long for sure. Of course the magic numbers helped propel the ES to close on the bullish bias that we are accustomed to.

Even though W formations are very consistent...we don't have to take the risk, or stay in a trade that long. We can look for something with a little less risk.

I think one could take the risk on the BO of the Triangle after the 3 o'clock reverse failed.

So, to answer your question...You never have to just take the risk, you will miss some of these...if you have MOM, and stoch's in the perfect position (Oversold) it should just take off. On this particular W the stoch's had pulled back and then moved up to give you a clue that it might work...but how do you handle the emotions?

Your thoughts of my email?

Marsh

More emini Workshop Commentary

Hi Students and Guest's...

Wild Friday and I missed all the fun.

If I was going to analyze my chart at the end of the day, this is what it would look like...and without the benefit of the TradeLog. Some comments about the first hours high: After the first hour (10.30) you would add 3 or 4 points to the high and low to get a feel for the range for the day. Not that it can't keep going, but just not likely...only you will know this if you keep track of the data over a long period of time.

Gaps...

Small gaps don't seem to matter all that much...so I don't pay much attention to them if there less that 4 points. Having said that...If I see the magic numbers and moving with stochastics I would give them some serious thought. Like that Blip pattern at the open.

A student pointed out you may have to look at the 24 hr. session to see if Stochastics is really in the right position at the open...he may have something there; lets watch it the next week or so. Please try to understand what is going on during the reversal time zones. Reports -- To reverse or not to reverse is the question.

Your Thoughts,

Marsh

Thought for the day...

Every great mistake has a halfway moment, a split second when it can be recalled and perhaps remedied.

Friday's e-mini Workshop

I hope you learned something from today's price action...Yeo asked me if this was momentum while in the workshop while we were waiting for a pullback; to clarify my answer...because I said we really have not had a 25 point back to the upside, and that we did not have MOM...we had the ES, Mega bearish from the get-go, now that's MOM. Magic Numbers rule...

Give me some feed back on what you perceived from that momentum...and why you couldn't pull the trigger after the 10:00 o'clock did not reverse...nor the 10:30 time zone.

This should be a good lesson on trying to use the MA strategy after the first hour.

-Marsh