Easy pickings today...you just had to be patient, and remember set-up's and Strategies that we see everyday.
We had more trades today in the Hotcomm room in a long time...they are better at seeing these set-up's in anticipation -- that way they pull the trigger without emotions playing such a big part of being a day trader. Just look at the chart and I'm sure you will see what we recognized as simple as 123 set-up's.
10:30 Reverse which included the MA Strategy
A 1-2-3 top formation that we call an " M " Pattern. This was in the time zone where in the last two years the ES has pulled back. It was a piece of cake -- like taking candy from (whomever).
We had a great lesson on trading the triple tops...just by looking at the color of the candles, and then before we knew it we got the same pattern going back the other way...how simple was that lesson.
The chart shows most of the trades we took today...check out our room and see what your missing.
Your Thoughts...
Prosper,
Marsh
Just a thought...
He who believes ... is strong; he who doubts ... is weak. Strong convictions precede great actions.
Marsh is trying to be in the Hotcomm room every Monday for at least a few hours. Guests are welcome!
Also, by request Marsh will be hosting a short workshop with a VERY special guest on July 10-12th on Advanced Trading Techniques.
PowerTrade techniques that keep it simple with minimum risk. Learn how to trade Gaps, trade against the trend, and learn how to take low risk trades using our fast Stochastics and MACD.
Special guest on Wednesday - Lavender will share her charts and remarks...learn how to be a gunslinger...and minimize your risk. This workshop is not for newbies...experienced traders or those who have attended my workshops and know the 40 things you need to know to make safe to make low risk trades.
Cost $150.00 (No refunds)
Where: Hotcomm Room - RELAY:123Students Time: 9:20 - 12:30 ET all 3 days and we will stay on Wednesday till I drop. Password will be provided the night before the Workshop.
------------------------- How To Do The Impossible ------------------------- You can do just about anything if you make up your mind to. How much you actually achieve depends largely on: 1. Desire 2. Knowledge 3. Persistent effort 4. Ability If you are lacking the first three factors, your ability will not balance out the lack. So concentrate on the first three and the results will amaze you.
Well the best we could do yesterday was power trades...we never had the magic numbers, but we kept the trades to a minimum risk of only 1/2 to 1 point.
The Open Gap Strategy was to small to trade...but I wanted you to notice, if we have a gap down it has a tendency to continue down for a few minutes at the open; most of the time. The bigger the gap the more it seems to move.
The Gap Strategy...where we look for the gap to get filled does not require a size...but I do like the gap to be about 3 or 4 points.
On a gap down the strategy calls for the high of the first 10-minutes as a target for your entry...look for white candles across the board.(the Dow and Comp). We managed a point out of that trade this morning.
The next thing we looked at was the 30-Minute Breakdown at 10:55 ET...it ended up being a small 1/4 point loss, it just took to long, and it looked like the market was just going to stall.
We had two nice W formations as you can see on the chart today...and the number 4 point of the W had developed a blip...that is a big clue we were going to get the reverse. We talked about taking the trade the second time through the number 3 point because we had no muscle (no magic numbers)...and we did get 1 full point out of that strategy.
The second W was a beautiful W, but it was to close the FOMC meeting and we decided we would just pass on that trade. But it was a beautiful perfect W.
How To Do The Impossible
You can do just about anything if you make up your mind too. How much you actually achieve depends largely on" 1. Desire 2. Knowledge 3. Persistent effort 4. Ability If you are lacking the first three factors, your ability will not balance out the lack. So concentrate on the first three and the results will amaze you.
Your thoughts about the workshop, criticisms, good, bad or indifferent would be helpful. The room will be open tomorrow, use the same password: bingo
The next workshop will be on Wednesday, same time set up but you will receive a different password Tuesday evening.
Well the best we could do yesterday was power trades...we never had the magic numbers, but we kept the trades to a minimum risk of only 1/2 to 1 point.
The Open Gap Strategy was to small to trade...but I wanted you to notice, if we have a gap down it has a tendency to continue down for a few minutes at the open; most of the time. The bigger the gap the more it seems to move.
The Gap Strategy...where we look for the gap to get filled does not require a size...but I do like the gap to be about 3 or 4 points.
On a gap down the strategy calls for the high of the first 10-minutes as a target for your entry...look for white candles across the board.(the Dow and Comp). We managed a point out of that trade this morning.
The next thing we looked at was the 30-Minute Breakdown at 10:55 ET...it ended up being a small 1/4 point loss, it just took to long, and it looked like the market was just going to stall.
We had two nice W formations as you can see on the chart today...and the number 4 point of the W had developed a blip...that is a big clue we were going to get the reverse. We talked about taking the trade the second time through the number 3 point because we had no muscle (no magic numbers)...and we did get 1 full point out of that strategy.
The second W was a beautiful W, but it was to close the FOMC meeting and we decided we would just pass on that trade. But it was a beautiful perfect W.
How To Do The Impossible
You can do just about anything if you make up your mind too. How much you actually achieve depends largely on" 1. Desire 2. Knowledge 3. Persistent effort 4. Ability If you are lacking the first three factors, your ability will not balance out the lack. So concentrate on the first three and the results will amaze you.
Your thoughts about the workshop, criticisms, good, bad or indifferent would be helpful. The room will be open tomorrow, use the same password: bingo
The next workshop will be on Wednesday, same time set up but you will receive a different password Tuesday evening.
I thought about you when I saw that W formation forming. I asked myself would he or wouldn't he take this trade.
I would not have taken it first time through because we did not have stoch's in the right position...and number 2, we had 2 red candles in a row...it just felt like it was not going to make it. If you did take the risk and you could withstand the emotions, it never pulled back below the #4 point, and it would have paid off. I can't stay in a trade that long for sure. Of course the magic numbers helped propel the ES to close on the bullish bias that we are accustomed to.
Even though W formations are very consistent...we don't have to take the risk, or stay in a trade that long. We can look for something with a little less risk.
I think one could take the risk on the BO of the Triangle after the 3 o'clock reverse failed.
So, to answer your question...You never have to just take the risk, you will miss some of these...if you have MOM, and stoch's in the perfect position (Oversold) it should just take off. On this particular W the stoch's had pulled back and then moved up to give you a clue that it might work...but how do you handle the emotions?
If I was going to analyze my chart at the end of the day, this is what it would look like...and without the benefit of the TradeLog. Some comments about the first hours high: After the first hour (10.30) you would add 3 or 4 points to the high and low to get a feel for the range for the day. Not that it can't keep going, but just not likely...only you will know this if you keep track of the data over a long period of time.
Gaps...
Small gaps don't seem to matter all that much...so I don't pay much attention to them if there less that 4 points. Having said that...If I see the magic numbers and moving with stochastics I would give them some serious thought. Like that Blip pattern at the open.
A student pointed out you may have to look at the 24 hr. session to see if Stochastics is really in the right position at the open...he may have something there; lets watch it the next week or so. Please try to understand what is going on during the reversal time zones. Reports -- To reverse or not to reverse is the question.
Your Thoughts,
Marsh
Thought for the day...
Every great mistake has a halfway moment, a split second when it can be recalled and perhaps remedied.
I hope you learned something from today's price action...Yeo asked me if this was momentum while in the workshop while we were waiting for a pullback; to clarify my answer...because I said we really have not had a 25 point back to the upside, and that we did not have MOM...we had the ES, Mega bearish from the get-go, now that's MOM. Magic Numbers rule...
Give me some feed back on what you perceived from that momentum...and why you couldn't pull the trigger after the 10:00 o'clock did not reverse...nor the 10:30 time zone.
This should be a good lesson on trying to use the MA strategy after the first hour.
Interesting day for a Thursday...we were in a descending channel most of the morning, and then we started to get a crossover on the fast MACD, and Stoch's was shooting straight up...I expected the 12 o'clock flop, but nooooo!
Now that is a big clue...we got the magic numbers at 12:15 and they were moving -- that is another big clue. Now for the risk that was pretty spooky; the Stochastics looked overbought, but the MACD looked good, TRIN was bullish, the 15-minute MACD was still looking up hill, and the TICK was moving up to the 800's. So with the odds in our favor, and having the magic numbers and moving with only 1 point of risk...you would look to pull the trigger, and look for the 1-1/4 point, or more. You could also try to incorporate the MA strategy into this trade because of the magic numbers and the momentum was growing. And don't forget the previous gaps we looked at this morning on the 15-min. chart...gaps get filled sooner or later.
If you take the high of the first hour and add 3 -- 4 points to extend the range, it gave you some room to take a trade at the high of the day...as I mentioned in the workshop this morning...Remember it's high risk trading at the high or low of the day? We needed that extended range to give us the confidence and momentum rules.
One more thought...anyone contemplate being a Contrarian late in the day? A quad top + and the move below the MA.
Good news! After several operations and a course of chemotherapy, Marsh is feeling well enough to spend some time in the Paltalk and Hotcomm rooms. You can visit him there if you want to listen in as he trades the emini....of course in Hotcomm you get to see his desktop and charts in real time too.
Marsh has also indicated he is up to taking another class later this month, from Jan 16th to Jan 25th. See the schedule below:
(Please note that many have already put their names down to reserve a spot. Since space is limited, they will get first preference, and after that it will be on a first come, first served basis).
Monday, January 16th 9:15am - 11:30am EST The Basics, and over 40 things you need to know to make safer lower risk trades. Set-up - Hotcomm, Charts, and answer questions.
5-Min. ES candlestick chart with the 10-period simple moving average. If you're using a chart service that allows you to set up more than one indicator�use Stochastics set at 8, 3, and 3, called Classic Stochastics� (Note that quote.com allows only %K and %D, set them at %K 8 and %D at 3).
5-Min. $COMPX candlestick chart with the 10-period simple moving average.
5-Min. $INDU candlestick chart with the 10-period simple moving average.
15-Min. ES chart with the MACD
Trade Log (If you don't use a Trade Log you will lose!)
Trading with the trend (The trend is your friend till it comes to an end)
How to place your orders - Bid and Ask (Learn how to cut down slippage.)
6 Reversal zones�maybe even 8.
A bullish bias�
Tuesday, January 17th 9:25am - 11:30am EST What to expect on Turn around Tuesday
Looking for a Strategy that fits your personality�
Open Gap strategy�the night traders 24hr session
Gap strategy�using a 10-minute ES chart
Double Tops and Bottoms
10 o'clock reverse
First hours High and Low - How it affects the day
Reversals�what to be wary of
Pivots - if you want to know where and how to use them
Wednesday, January 18th 10:25am - 2:30pm EST�
Afternoon Strategies�how they are different
12 o'clock hop or flop
That move to the low during the doldrums - risk to reward breakouts. When to use caution in the afternoon
2:15 Late afternoon Breakout - How to recognize the set-up
The Bond Boys�Strategies - M/A, Breakouts, first hour's high and low.
A bullish bias Continued on next page�
Thursday, January 19th 9:25am - 11:30am
Staying out of the chop ( Looking for a channel)
12 o'clock hop or flop
Reversals�or just pullbacks
Strategies - Gaps, M/A, Breakouts, first hour's high and low.
Review of what we need to know
Choppy bias
Friday, January 20th 11:45am - 2:45pm EST Advanced Trading Techniques
Understanding trading day personalities
Emotions you never knew you had
That second high of the day�maintaining that low risk trade.
Trailing Stops�when is the best time to use them
Late Afternoon Breakout�2:15
The Bond Boys
A bullish bias
Monday, January 23rd 9:25am - 11:30am EST�
Now we know what to expect�right!
Identifying 11 Price Patterns
Blips�using those candlesticks
8 possible reversal time zones�How can we tell?
Momentum�do you get it?
A bullish bias
Tuesday, January 24th 9:25am - 11:30am EST�
Why it's not working for you
Controlling frustrations
How to stay focused
1:25 reverse or pullback�how can we tell?
Trading in a Channel
Choppy, and narrow channel
Wednesday, January 25th 9:25am - 12:00 noon EST�
Review afternoon Strategies
12 o'clock hop or flop
That move to the low during the doldrums - risk to reward Reversals to look out for in the afternoon
The Bond Boys�Strategies - M/A, Breakouts, first hour's high and low.
3 o'clock reverse�
A bullish bias Times and dates subject to change�
We will spend at least 3 days of the last week of the month on any make-up classes you may have missed.
Those signing up for the Hotcomm classes will also get 17 pages of articlesthat have not yet been added to the trading manual.
Make sure you do your homework. If you will take the time to study you will learn to feel the pulse of the market, and make confident trading decisions.
I don't really pay any attention to pivots...Time Zones are a priority to me.
I have a very strict set of guide lines on high risk trades...like my Open Gap Strategy, and also the Gap Strategy. My first real opportunity to make a low risk (even though it's a Power Trade) is the 10 o'clock EST reverse. After the first hour we have the 10:30 reverse, and the 30-Minute Breakout.
There are some very repetitious movements that occur almost everyday...I do like to trade them when I get the set-up; they are the 12 o'clock hop or flop, and the ES likes to move toward the low of the day between 1 and 2 o'clock.
Technical analysis is really quite simple, and easy to learn, and with over 15 basic patterns to look for during the day...we always have something to analyze.
The Simple-as-123 concept almost gets lost with all that I just mentioned...but I think about it everyday when I'm looking at these elements...After the first hour I want the market to be in sync (Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P) I want the Dow to be moving above 25 points and the Naz above 10 and both to be moving...If I'm not near a reversal time zone I pull the trigger if I'm on the right side of the track (Trading with the trend.) Can't remember the last loss when that happens...give it your best shot; remember I'm just looking for 1 -- 1-1/4 points...and the opportunity to trail, and not risking ever more than two points.
I believe the basics -- the 40 things you need to know will make any system, or method better...most of these are just common sense that are often overlooked; and that is why traders make simple mistakes.
There are some simple concepts that help us make some of these rules worthwhile...
The high and the low of the day occurs after the first hour...+ - 3 or 4 points.
Be cautious trading at the High and Low of the day...need a confluence to do so.
After the high or the low of the day have been made...look to be a Contrarian.
Wait for the turn...(when the trend is changing, we need the MA and Fast Stoch's to cross) to make a safe trade.
Count candles and look for a set-up when Stoch's are at extremes.
Sounds like a lot...but not when you study the chart and observe these traits everyday.
